Alberta Decides: Whether or not to decide, after 9 other decisions

Multiple beginnings

           

            Canada didn't begin all at once. At the 1st beginning on July 1 1867, there were the 4 founding provinces of Ontario, Quebec, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. Manitoba, British Columbia and Prince Edward Island joined in 1870, 1871, and 1873. In the post-Victorian era, along came Alberta and Saskatchewan in 1905, completed by Newfoundland (a.k.a. Newfoundland and Labrador) in 1949. 

         Post war history has been an occasionally bumpy ride, most notably with unease starting in Quebec in the 1960s. Grievances in La Belle Province predate confederation by more than a century.

          More recently, regional discontent has mainly been elsewhere. Ottawa has virtually become a rude word in Alberta, synonymous with unwanted and damaging policies "we didn't vote for". Consequentially, there will be choices for the Albertan electorate to make on October 19.

2015 & 2021 & 2026

        How did we (Albertans) get here? The most recent referendum was in October 2021, about whether or not Albertans wished to eliminate equalization payments from Canada's constitution. The yes in favour only gave the provincial government the mandate to request changing it. Finalizing it would require federal parliamentary approval. This fell on deaf ears in Ottawa. 

        That was the result of growing Albertan discontent since the election of 2015. The policies of Justin Trudeau's federal government and (non)response to the 2021 referendum aggravated the displeasure of many who deemed that Alberta should distance itself both politically and even sociologically. A condescending attitude percolated about the east and how the electorate 'over there' was susceptible and even gullible to his sloganeering and climate change evangelism.  

        The aftereffects are recognized by the Alberta government on its website about the forthcoming referendum. It also admits that some of the efforts of successor prime minister Mark Carney have undone some of the damage inflicted by the "Trudeau-Singh coalition government". 

 

         Nevertheless, even with some of the hyperbole, this is a multi-part referendum which is more than just an opportunity for 5,057,077 Albertans to democratically and administratively yell, "we want out!" The major headline is the last of the referendum's 10 questions. The other 9 are about potentially broader autonomy. As a whole, the referendum has 3 highly encompassing subheadings:

Immigration

        5 of the 10 questions are under the immigration rubric. It is about further provincial autonomy so as to undo another sphere of the damaging policies inflicted by Justin Trudeau. Demographic manipulation is another significant side effect of his era. The 83,872 non-permanent residents in Alberta in 2021 increased to 292,462 in 2025. 

         This tripling of temporary residents due to "irresponsible federal policies" have caused inflation to spike and have "adversely affected Albertans and Canadians looking for affordable housing and employment opportunities", in addition to pressurizing services such as health care and education. 

        Therefore, the 5 yes or no questions are about increasing Alberta's autonomy over immigration so it prioritizes economic needs, as well as public services not being for the undocumented. The previous "open door" mishmash meant that some employers relied too much on temporary foreign workers with skilled locals effectively sidestepped in the recruitment process. Despite a minor subsequent policy reversal, the false hope this generated entailed many irregular newcomers becoming the equivalent of freeloaders for public services. The referendum would enable Albertans to approve redressing this imbalance, and prevent it from happening again.

       Economic and social stability could result from an actual democratic mandate. It would also make accusations of prejudice in provincial government policies groundless. 

Constitution

     Once, there was a document. Then, there were two. Then, there was the interpretation and implementation thereof.

       Then in 2026, there will be 4 questions put to the population of a province which became a signatory to the original 1867 document under the Alberta Act in 1905. These amount to the electorate being asked to endorse the government of Alberta working with other provinces to revamp the Constitution. Approval would mean Alberta cooperating with other provinces to attempt to amend it, with changes entailing more autonomy from federal interference in provincial laws and programs. 

         Most significantly of all, it would mean abolishing the federal senate. Not only is it unelected, 5.1 million Albertans are 'represented' by 6 of them, whereas 4 Atlantic provinces with half of Alberta's population are represented by 30. The way it functions is a legacy of that man. A yes vote to this question in particular would at least make it a subject of national discussion and prevent it from staying under the rug where it was swept. Potentially, if it is not abolished, the Senate could be reformed.

 

        Any revisions could revamp that document and translate into genuine autonomy, with at least some kind of safeguard against long-standing federal overreach. Constitutional changes could result in recognition of Alberta's culture and further provincial empowerment which could be closer to paralleling the situation of Quebec, despite the refusal of La Belle Province to sign the 1982 document. A yes vote could give the government of Alberta a clear mandate "to build support among other provinces" to change the Constitution. As the 4 constitutional questions cover a wide range of features, there is at least a higher chance of the powers-that-be not looking the other way, contradicting the behaviour of the erstwhile target of Albertan displeasure. 

Separation

           It is the gazillion dollar question, at least metaphorically. Unlike La Belle Province in 1980 and 1995, this does not ask whether or not Alberta should become an independent state. It asks whether or not the electorate would like a referendum about this in particular. When an actual referendum about it is going to take place would be the time to weigh up irritation with Ottawa versus the many side effects of being a landlocked state. Therefore, Albertans could then objectively consider what separation would entail. The build-up to the referendum on October 19, 2026 is not that time.

       Question 10: "Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?" 

        The legal process required under the Canadian Constitution is The Clarity Act, which is a direct legacy of Quebec's 1995 referendum. A referendum must ask a clear question and win a clear majority in order for the federal government to negotiate secession. Instead of a yes or no answer with questions 1-9, electors must choose 1 of the 2 options: 

    Option 1: "Alberta should remain a province of Canada." This choice is the same as responding "absolutely, and there is no need to even ask again." 

       Option 2 is the (slightly) big(er) one: "The Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada." An X in this box is a vote in favour of being able to vote yes or no to separation - effectively a form of independence. This choice is the same as responding "yes, let us choose whether or not to get out at another time."

Navigating the referendal matrix

      This relatively complex referendum touches on a couple of concepts, and is far more than just a means of unTrudeauing Alberta. The first 9 questions are about provincial autonomy which could also function as a form of protection against any unilateralism from the federal government. It could effectively be a restoration of Canada functioning as it should have all along. 

      Even with its headline-grabbing characteristics, the 10th question is far more significant than the rest of them, as well as being slightly mischaracterized as an independence vote. What began on September 1, 1905 could only have an end date if a majority of the electorate votes in favour of having an actual referendum specifically about separation, followed by a clear majority voting in favour in that resulting referendum. 

       The wording of it is legally decreed by the Clarity Act of 2000 which is somewhat ironically a direct legacy of the Quebec sovereignty referendum of 1995. The Constitution Act of 1982 has still not been signed by La Belle Province. The root of this is mainly because Quebec lost its (partial) veto over constitutional change. Some of the motivation behind the Citizen Initiative Petition which became question 10 is a perceived pro-east bias, especially pro-Quebec. 

     While even the question about the question might give some of the electorate the willies, the referendum as a whole brings up essential issues about which Albertans can express their views. This form of self-determination under the 3 subject areas would be most clearly expressed by a form of straight-ticket voting. Yes to questions 1-9 would go some way towards Alberta no longer being subjected to an administrative and legal straitjacket. 

        Choosing Option 2 for question 10 would at least encourage many to consider why Albertans are seriously considering leaving. At the very least, it would encourage contemplation by the Albertan electorate that despite their frustration with Ottawa and the Feds, separating from Canada could be counterproductive. Denying ourselves a longer timeframe to consider this by choosing Option 1 would entail a referendum ballot being the equivalent of a spoiled (or soiled) paper.