Canada's lost decade (and lost electorate)

Once upon a time...

                                                   

        Canada had a prime minister who was an economic technocrat. The election in 2015 was partially a referendum on the neo-liberal economics and social policies of Stephen Harper. The way in which these had become slightly divisive were exploited by Justin Trudeau, bringing on what one of Harper's cabinet minister's, Peter MacKay, described as a "sea change". This included Joe Oliver becoming the first finance minister to lose his seat for over 20 years. In a speech to supporters, Harper took ownership, "the disappointment you feel is my responsibility and mine alone." 

       A sharp contrast was the recently victorious Justin Trudeau, defeating the New Democrats who had been on the verge of forming their first government ever. The NDP leader, Tom Mulcair, nearly lost his own seat. That drubbing was most likely the result of a degree of tactical voting enabled by Justin Trudeau's talent for telling people what they want to hear. A reflection of going from third to first was expressed by promising "sunny ways" for all Canadians, along with better being "always possible."

       A general desire for greater equality was answered with the tagline "real change", offering to fund infrastructure spending by running three consecutive deficits. Today, deficit spending can be classified as a promise that the Liberal government has kept. His career before politics as a drama teacher was useful during campaigns, so enough of the electorate ignored critics labelling his resume as being "too thin" for a political leader. After taking office, it would then be a matter of implementing policies which matched the presentation with which he had delivered them.

Doing politics differently: In what way, shape or form?

       The style has certainly been different, as before and after taking office he made Harper appear to be grey, boring, aloof and disconnected. However, despite his primary talent, wasn't it all style and no substance? Revising the structure of income taxes was his first item of business, lowering them for middle-income Canadians and raising them for the top 1%. Legalization of cannabis was mentioned as an intention soon thereafter, ostensibly to reduce the capability of criminals to profit from it and reduce it circulating among youth. Therefore, on a legal basis, adults could become potheads. That was introduced 2 years after the right to medically-assisted dying in 2016. There were certainly concrete policies to begin with, even though the tried-and-trusted method of overmarketing them continued.

Climateography

        Climate change is something that needs "fighting". Despite one of many measures being to restrict construction and use of pipelines, committing to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 30% by 2030 and net-zero by 2050 are merely unrealistic and economically stultifying pipe dreams. The main means of attempting to reach this target is federal carbon pricing policy, also known as the Carbon Tax. The Greenhouse Gas Pollution Pricing Act is a law consisting of minimum national standards for a price on all greenhouse gases, which is also an output-based emissions trading system. The minimum tax is set to double by the end of this decade.

        Single use plastics were banned last year. While using the legal system to enforce policies in an authoritarian manner is easy, taking the initiative to produce actual results is beyond him. Environmentally. reforestation and afforestation are highly valuable in terms of reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide. During the election campaign in 2019, Justin Trudeau pledged to have 2 billion trees planted by 2030. At the current pace, just 3.8% of them will have been planted by then. Therefore, is he incapable of genuinely managing and leading, or is his electioneering just blather which is a means to the end of telling people what they want to hear? One only needs to analyze superficially to conclude that an excessive proportion of the electorate lacks objectivity. 

Instagram Prime Minister: something of a mirage

       Therefore, his tried and trusted methodology is an ongoing means to achieve a continuous great escape, as being a 'man of the people' accentuates the gullibility of (too) many voters.

"Smile, and everyone else collaborates in maintaining my façade."

         At international meetings and elsewhere, public image is useful as long as one avoids recreating Public Image Ltd. When it came to promise to improve civil rights and respect for diversity, one key demographic was (and still is) Indigenous Canadians. One of the black marks in Canada's history as a whole is Residential Schools and the forced assimilation and mistreatment of indigenous children for over a century. When unmarked graves of hundreds of Indigenous children were discovered in May 2021, the National Centre for Truth and Reconciliation gave approximately 100 recommendations. The prime ministerial promise to "fully implement" them was accompanied by a deafening silence to follow up questions from journalists. That and laying flowers at Indigenous gravesites for conveniently well-placed photographers amounted to farcical gesture publicity. 

      Loosely related to improved and corrected treatment of Indigenous Canadians is the Prime Minister's self-declaration of being a feminist. Appointing Jody Wilson-Raybould as Minister of Justice and Attorney General of Canada fulfilled many of his aims. What she revealed in her book, "Indian" in the Cabinet: Speaking Truth to Power, revealed that behind closed doors, he was very different. It began with her recommendation to appoint the conservative Manitoba judge, Glenn Joyal, to the Supreme Court of Canada in 2017 with which the prime minister strongly disagreed. This was just a gentle beginning, leading to much worse becoming public. 

      In 2019, SNC-Lavalin, a Montreal based engineering, procurement and construction service provider was facing charges of fraud and corruption, connected to $48 million paid to Libyan government officials from 2001 to 2011. Conviction would have entailed a decade-long ban from biding for federal government contracts. In a secretly recorded phone call, the Privy Council Clerk Michael Wernick attempted to pressure her into a deferred prosecution agreement for SNC-Lavalin, because the prime minister wanted it "one way or another."

         The day after April Fool's Day (!), the prime minister had her both expelled from the Liberal caucus of the House of Commons and stripped of her Liberal Party nomination for the upcoming federal election. He referred to her recording the phone call with the Privy Council Clerk as being "unconscionable", which is a polite way of avoiding addressing a suspect form of behaviour for which he had been caught with his metaphorical pants down. The treasury board president, Jane Philpott, was an additional casualty of "doing politics differently."

           The conclusions that Jody Wilson-Raybould reached are those which a decisive proportion of the electorate should have reached a long time ago, at least partially. Controlling government functions while creating a different public perception through image-driven emptiness by flogging slogans but not wanting to act on them has potential to breed dense cynicism.

Further (semi-secret) misbehavior and fetish with doors, rugs, and pockets

        In addition to the legal hocus-pocus of SNC-Lavalin, there has been some funneling of funds for the benefit of a familial nature. There once was a charity called Save The Children which became to WE Charity. It was awarded a federal contract to administer the $912 million Canada Student Service Grant Program. The prime minister had previously lauded WE as being "the only possible option" to administer this, while his family were paid to appear at events ($425,000, approximately). This also extended to the family of former Finance Minister Bill Morneau. 

 

         The main cause which the government champions, climate change and environment, has also been subject to surreptitious funneling. Sustainable Development Technology Canada (SDTC) is a foundation which funds / used to fund new clean technology to "promote sustainable development, including technologies to address issues related to climate change and the quality of air, water and soil." Grants are (supposed to be) decided by many environmental experts. It has become known as the Green Slush Fund due to testimony from a whistleblower and a report from the Auditor General, Karen Hogan. The whistle blower only testified to a parliamentary enquiry as long as he could remain anonymous. Several employees complained about breaches of the conflict of interest policy along with "gross mismanagement" public funds. These complaints were "never taken seriously and were always swept under the rug."

         Furthermore (!), the Auditor General of Canada has the role of serving parliament by "providing it with objective, fact-based information and expert advice on government programs and activities." According to AG Karen Hogan, 1/6 of STDC-funded projects were ineligible and the organization has serious governance issues. Eight specific projects worth $51 million "did not support the development or demonstration of a new technology, or the projected environmental benefits were unreasonable."

        STDC is one of many government organizations employing handsomely remunerated government-appointed consultants. Among the many who could be hiding in the shadows, the best known is McKinsey & Company. While an investigation found "no evidence of political interference" in their activities, there are "always opportunities to further improve and strengthen" the government's procurement process. Above all, the products sold are theories, concepts and methods which are intangible, with unknown effects which are difficult to measure. How is the state able to prove that tax payers are receiving good value, when their influence over policy is exercised behind closed doors? This is worth asking, given the approximate increase in funding of $7.5 billion since 2015. 

       Closed doors is a useful or essential architectural feature of public relations, given how donations to parliamentary candidates that the PRC (a.k.a. China) prefers used to flow, along with disinformation campaigns of which the Prime Minister has been informed. Even the Trudeau Foundation may have received donations which can be sourced to the PRC. This may have decreased or stopped recently, given the precarious economic balancing act over there. 

       Such a balancing act is a full-time occupation of the current government, not only to prevent the national economy from getting even worse, but also as a means of self-promotion. This could give the appearance of electing an alternative government to be one that should be feared. This could be mission-impossible, as (over)spending has caused inflation which could even be classified as hyperinflation when it comes to home ownership. The promise of affordable housing is a flop, with prices having nearly doubled. In order to boost liquidity and prevent a "financial Dunkirk", the government took to printing money. When taken to task about during parliamentary debates, Justin Trudeau has descended into ranted blather that the Conservatives would cut services. Claiming that certain types of rebate such as the Canada Carbon Rebate and the GST holiday/tax break "puts more money in the pockets of Canadians" rings hollow. Unfortunately, such shenanigans have been successful for years and his slogans have proven that a significant proportion of the electorate has been appallingly gullible.

      Behind closed doors goings-on, sweeping problems under rugs along with filling "pockets" with phantom money have thus far enabled the Liberal government to fleece the electorate, funnel funds where they don't belong, and transformed the nation into a kleptocracy.  

Minority government's crutch,  smartly dressed with a nice car.

         While the number of seats of the Liberal government has been shrinking with the improvised snap elections in 2019 and 2021 as well as every by-election, there is still a resource available to prolong its term in office - the fourth largest party, the NDP. The arrangement made between the prime minister and the NDP leader, Jagmeet Singh, effectively made it an unofficial coalition government. Bizarrely enough, it was on my birthday in 2022 when the NDP and the 'governing' Liberal Party signed the confidence-and-supply agreement. The main policies included in the deal was establishing a national dental care program for low income Canadians, getting closer to a national pharmacare program, various labour reforms, and new taxes on financial institutions.                         

        Negotiations were fraught between the coalition partners about pharmacare, and what medication would be covered and that the system should be single-payer. The agreement was ended 9 months early, when Jagmeet Singh theatrically ripped up the supply-and-confidence agreement. The piece of scratch paper was videoed being torn up so he could accuse the Liberals of having reneged on the agreement. 

        Having lasted 2 and half years, since September of this year, the NDP has been trying to distance itself from an increasingly unpopular 'government' and 'prime minister', while also depicting itself as a progressive and pro-worker alternative to the Conservative Party. He laboured his point in insisting that both the Liberals and Conservatives are unfavourable to the working class because they support "big corporations and wealthy CEOs." 

        How much credence does the Osgood Hall Law School graduate and former criminal defense lawyer, in partnership with his brother Gurratan, have? In Ontario provincial politics from 2011 until 2017 when he became the NDP leader then an MP through a by-election in 2019, he ruffled a few feathers a year later by calling a Bloc Québécois MP "racist". Aside from earning a subsequent rebuke from the Speaker, there have been attempts to squeeze a few favours from the government partially as a means to portray his party and himself as standing up for the downtrodden working-class. 

         While the supply-and-confidence agreement could have been a fool's errand, his stand-up electioneering since then has included sniping at Justine Trudeau for his fly-out visit to president-elect Trump to discuss the potential imposition of a 25% tariff on imports from Canada. "When Trump says 'jump', Trudeau says 'how high?'" This was accompanied with the insinuation that the Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre is a carbon copy of president-elect Donald Trump. Having delayed the (inevitable?) exit of Justin Trudeau from the prime minister's office, it remains to be seen whether or not the NDP will continue to slump.

How long will the shouting match last?

     Regardless of when the election comes, which many wanted the day before yesterday, the pantomime of the Canadian parliament and its politics in general is doomed to continue. In the face of dwindling popularity, Justin Trudeau has reverted to erstwhile themes expressed with the usual slogans such as "fighting climate change" and the Carbon Tax having the ludicrous title, "price on pollution." When the opposition demands a "Carbon Tax election", the response from Justin Trudeau is emotionally disjointed ranting and labelling. Slogans are only suitable when he says them, and the mere act of disagreeing with him is a "partisan game" and "playing politics." 

      One set of unwritten rules applying to him exclusively has developed into a few Liberal MPs discarding their previous tribal mindset. What started as a timid letter signed by 25 Liberal MPs in October encouraging Justin Trudeau to leave was insignificant for him, so he displayed the "nothing to see here, folks" attitude. Even when that number doubled in December, he looked the other way. 

      However, 6 weeks thereafter and all on December 16th: Sean Fraser, the Minister of Housing, Infrastructure and Communities resigned and announced that he wouldn't be seeking re-election. Deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland was fired as Finance Minister and offered a ministry without portfolio. She was supposed to present the fall economic statement, but instead the Minister of Nothing resigned from the cabinet. Previously, whenever she was responding to criticism in parliament, she frequently had a baffled expression. Was the bafflement about the criticism itself, about herself, or about navigating her relationship with the prime minister having probably become similar to that with Jody Wilson-Raybould? Her resignation letter clarified what the reason for her continuously awkward facial expression was.

        The moment had finally come for her to reveal the uncomfortable truth, primarily motivated by the reaction to the potential tariffs from the US and how that relates to the GST Holiday: "We need to take this threat extremely seriously. This means keeping our fiscal powder dry, so we have the reserves we may need for the tariff war. This means eschewing costly political gimmicks, which we can ill afford and make Canadians doubt that we recognize the gravity of the moment." Will enough of the electorate come to such a realization, because too many have allowed themselves to be fooled several times?

        When it comes to further observations in the letter, some questions ask themselves: "Canadians know when we are working for them, and they equally know when we are focused in ourselves." How come much of the electorate didn't realize this when they really should have?

"Inevitably, our time in government will come to an end. But how we deal with the threat our country currently faces will define us for a generation, and perhaps longer." While the definition should and probably will be a thorough castigation of Justin Trudeau and by extension the Liberal Party, shouldn't such an assessment also be extended to those of the electorate gullible enough to vote for his party and also their 'little butler'? 

       The prime minister's difficult day ended with his minority shrinking even further. There was a by-election in the BC Cloverdale-Langley riding. The previous MP, John Aldag, resigned his seat in May in order to run in the provincial election as an NDP candidate. He went on to receive a drubbing in that election. In this by-election, the Liberal and NDP candidates were also heavily defeated gaining just over half of the votes of the winner combined. Turnout was low, with only 14,000 of 92,000 eligible voters casting ballots. If it hadn't been for mid-winter probably putting some of the electorate off, the Liberal and NDP could have faced localized annihilation. 

        Despite having maintained his delusional grin throughout that day, it remains to be seen whether or not Liberal MPs will continue to emulate Justin Trudeau. With a shrinking caucus and a shriveling party and government, the Liberal Party could end up being renamed the Lemming Party by emulating the myth of them plunging off cliffs, especially if they 'carry on regardless'. Whether it is October 20 next year or earlier, the electorate should return to thinking objectively, which is long overdue. Doing so would enable them to have the nation they deserve, and have deserved for the past decade despite far too many of them behaving like ostriches with their heads buried in the sand. The façade of attempting trickery through using gimmicks and image-driven emptiness should be rejected entirely, therefore individual as well as collective potential could be achievable again.